Articles Archive

№ 1/282, 2016

Title
Authors
Category
Choice of strategies of oil and gas equipment under of uncertainty and risk
Technical sciences

Authors: Yury P. STEPIN was born in 1946, graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1969, specializing in „Industrial Electronics”. He is Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Automated Control Systems of Gubkin Russian State University (National Research University) of Oil and Gas. He is author of 130 publications including 103 scientific-papers, 23 teaching aids, 2 books and 2 patents. He has prepared 5 candidates of sciences.
E-mail: stepin.y@gubkin.ru

Abstract: The article is devoted to solving problems of multicriteria evaluation and agreed selection (Customer - Contractor) of the optimal variant of maintenance and repairs of oil and gas production facilities in the conditions of uncertainty and risks of their operation, and market interaction of the Customer and the Contractor. It is shown that the solution of the problem in this case is reduced to a multicriteria evaluation of the technical condition of the objects of maintenance and maintenance options that take into account the uncertainty and risks of operating facilities through the appropriate necessary indicators (criteria); identification of the best Bayes maintenance strategies for the Customer and the Contractor under the conditions of partial and in complete uncertainty using the theory of games with nature selection criteria; choice of coherent maintenance strategy optimal for both Customer and Contractor using the Pareto method.

Index UDK: УДК 681.5: 519.86

Keywords: multi-criteria assessment of risk, Bayes maintenance strategy, security, game and nature, convolution of criteria, harmonization solutions, Pareto method for matching solutions, partial uncertainty, complete uncertainty

Bibliography:
1. Stepin Yu.P. Metody i modeli avtomatizacii i upravleniy obslujivaniem neftegazoviyh tehnologicheskih processov i proizvodstv (na primere promyslovyh geofizicheskih i remontnyh rabot v dobyche I transporte nefti I gaza). Dokt. dissert. М.: GANG im. I.М. Gubkina, 1998, 359 р.
2. Farapontov A.V., Gotarenko A.F. Risk orientirovannye podhody k obespecheniu ekspluatacionnoy nadejnosti sosudov, rabotauschih pod davleniem. M.: NTJ Bezopasnost truda v promyhlennosti, 2010, no. 11.
3. STO GAZPROM 2-2.3-385-2009 (Porijdok provedeniy tehnicheskogo obslujivaniy i remonta truprovodnoy armatury), 2009.
4. Katulev A.N., Severtcev N.A. Issledovanie operatciy. Principy priniyatiy reheniy i obespechenie bezopasnosti. M.: Fiz-mat literature, 2000, 318 p.
5. Stepin Yu.P., Trakhtengerts E.A. Komp’yuternaya podderzhka upravleniya neftegazovymi tekhnologicheskimi protsessami i proizvodstvami. Metody i algoritmy formirovaniya upravlencheskikh resheniy. Kniga 1. Vektor TiS, 2007, 384 p. Kniga 2. MAKS Press, 2008, 528 p.
6. Vetcel E.S. Issledovanie operatciy.
М.: Sov. Radio, 1972, 552 p.
7. Kafarov V.V., Mashalkin V.P., Grun G., Noyman V. Obespechenie i metody optimizccii nadejnosti himicheskih i neftehimicheskih proizvodstv. M.: Himiy, 1987, 342 p.
8. GOST R MEK 61511. Bezopasnost funktcionirovaniy. Sistemy bezopasnosti dliy promyshlennyh processov. M.: Stavdartinform, 2012.
9. GOST R MEK 61508 Upravlenie nadejnostiy. Analz riska tehnicheskih system. – M.: Stavdartinform, 2008 g.
10. Burkov V.N., Gratcianskiy E.V., Dzubko S.I., Schepkin A.V. Modeli i mehanizmy upravleniy bezpasnotiu. V.: SINTEG, 2001, 160 p.
11. Standart DNV-RP-F116. Recommended Practice. Integrity Management of Submarine Pipeline Systems, October, 2009.
12. Makdonald D. Promyshlennaiy bezopasnost, octenivanie riska i sistemy avariiynogo ostanova.
М.: ООО “Gruppa IDT”, 2007.
13.
http://www.vm.dupland.com/sites/default/files.pdf
14. Vishniykov J.D., Radaev N.N. Obschaiy teoriy riskov. M.: Akademiy, 2008, 368 p.
15. Nejin V.P. Teoriy igr. Primery i zadachi. M.: FORUM, 2012, 128 p.
16. Suharev M.G., Lapiga A.G., Kalinina E.V. Statiaticyeskiy analiz avariynosti gazoraspredelitelnih system. Territoriy neftegaz, 2010, no. 4.
17. Andreev A.F., Zubareva V.D., Sarkisov A.S. Otcenka riskov neftegazovyh proektov. –
М.: Neft i gaz, 2003, 212 p.

Strategic planning: modified method of pair comparisons for problems of high dimension
Technical sciences

Authors: Ilya V. SAMARIN graduated from Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas in 2006. He is Candidate of Technical Sciences, assistant professor of the Department of Automation of Technological Processes of Gubkin Russian State University (National Research University) of Oil and Gas. He is a specialist in the field of automation and managment. He is author of more than 50 scientific publications. E-mail: ivs@gubkin.pro

Abstract: The main features of the application of an expert calculation method of pair comparisons to determine the relative importance of factors in problems of strategic planning of high dimension are considered. It is offered to expand the opportunities of the initial method of pair comparisons adapted for operating not more than 10-15 factors. For this purpose it is offered to apply the multicascade settlement scheme, having previously grouped initial factors into clusters. Two ways of implementation of the multicascade scheme are considered. The offered ways of integrating results of private examinations are demonstrated on a model test task. It is shown that the developed methods allow to receive the decision with a mean square mistake about 2 % that corresponds to an error of the most exact econometric mathematical models

Index UDK: УДК 519.816

Keywords: algorithm, importance, cluster, matrix, method of pair comparisons, modification, error, dimension, interface, strategic planning, test, factor, expert

Bibliography:
1. Samarin I.V., Fomin A.N. Strategic planning at the enterprise: application of a method of the analysis of hierarchies for the analysis of system of purposes. Innovations and investments, 2014, no. 6, p. 132-141.
2.
Samarin I.V. Application of a method of pair comparisons for an assessment of sizes of expenses at strategic budget planning of a complex of actions. A scientific review, 2014, no. 8, p. 821-827.
3.
Samarin I.V., Baskakov V.V., Fedoseyev S.A., Fomin A.N. Scientific and methodical tools of strategic planning at the large enterprises. M.: Advansed Solyushiz, 2014.
4. Samarin I.V., Baskakov V.V., Fedoseyev S.A., Fomin A.N. Theoretical and program and tool bases of strategic planning at the enterprises of defense industry complex in modern conditions. M.: The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, the monograph, RVSN WA printing house of Peter the Great, 2015.
5. Saati T. Decision-making. Method of the analysis of hierarchies. Perev. with English. M.: Radio and communication, 1993.
6. Moiseyev N.N. Mathematical tasks of the system analysis. M.: Science, 1981.

Applying scanning probe microscopy to study morphology of solid surfaces
Technical sciences

Authors: Daria Yu. KHANUKAEVA graduated from Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology in 1999, she is Candidate of Physico-Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Higher Mathematics. She is author of more than 30 publications in the field of mechanics and mathematics. E-mail khanuk@yandex.ru
Anatoly N. FILIPPOV (b. 1960) graduated from Lomonosov Moscow State University in 1982. He is Doctor of Physico-Mathematical Sciences, рrofessor of the Department of Higher Mathematics. He is author of more than 300 publications and 3 monographs in the fields of physicochemical mechanics, colloid chemistry and mathematics. E-mail filippov.a@gubkin.ru
Vladimir I. IVANOV (b. 1961) graduated from Lomonosov Moscow State University in 1983. Нe is Candidate of Physico-Mathematical Sciences, аssociate Professor of the Department of Higher Mathematics. He is author of more than 10 publications in the fields of physicochemical, hydrodynamics, colloid chemistry and mathematics. E-mail vladimir.i-ivanov@yandex.ru
Vasily V. KALININ (b. 1952) graduated from Lomonosov Moscow State University in 1974. He is Doctor of Physico-Mathematical Sciences. Head of the Department of Higher Mathematics. He is author of more than 70 publications in the fields of physicochemical hydrodynamics, colloid chemistry and mathematics. E-mail vm@gubkin.ru

Abstract: Five different examples of the use of scanning probe microscopy to study the morphology of solid rough surfaces were studied. These demonstrated the potential of a variety of AFM techniques. All these measurements were carried out on areas of micron-scale of the parts and pieces of research objects, which are geological materials, metal samples and polymer membranes with sizes down to a few nanometers. These results are related to the micro- and nanostructures of the materials studied and allow gathering information about their properties in these scales, thus opening up opportunities for the development of new models and technologies.

Index UDK: УДК 532.546.2

Keywords: atomic force microscopy, surface morphology, roughness, porous structure, minerals, polymeric membranes.

Bibliography:
1. Khanukaeva D.Yu., Filippov A.N., Bildyukevich A.V. An AFM Study of Ultrafiltration Membranes: Peculiarities of Pore Size Distribution. Petroleum Chemistry, 2014, vol. 54, no. 7, p. 498–506.
2. Jesse S., Kalinin S.V. Band excitation in scanning probe microscopy: signs of change. J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys., 2011, vol. 44, p. 464006–464022.
3. Khanukaeva D.Yu., Kalinin S.V., Filippov A.N., Ievlev A.V., Buzilov A.S. Scanning probe microscopy of minerals microstructure. Metodologicheskie aspecty scaniruyushchei zondovoi microscopii — BelSZM XI [Proc. XI Int. Conf. „Methodological Aspects of Scanning Probe Microscopy”]. Minsk, 2014, p. 178-183 (in Russian).
4. Chen C.-Y., Garnica-Rodrigues J.I., Duke M.C., Dalla Costa R.F., Dicks A.L., Diniz da Costa J.D. Nafion/polyanilin/silica composite membranes for direct methanol fuel cell application. J. of Power Sources, 2007, vol. 166, p. 324-330.
5. Kolechko M.V., Filippov A.N., Shkirskaya S.A., Timofeev S.V., Berezina N.P. Synthesis and Diffusion Permeability of MF-4SK/Polyaniline Composite Membranes with Controlled Thickness of the Modified Layer. Colloid Journal, 2013, vol. 75, no. 3, p. 289-296.
6. Kalinin V.V., Filippov A.N., Khanukaeva D.Yu. Investigation of Membrane Morphology by Atomic Force Microscopy Under Mathematical Modeling of Diffusive Processes. Trudy RGU nefti i gaza imeni I.M. Gubkina [Proceedings of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas], 2012, no. 1 (266), p. 129-136 (in Russian).
7. Filippov A., Afonin D., Kononenko N., Shkirskaya S. Characterization of Perfluorinated Cation-Exchange Membranes MF-4SC Surface Modified with Halloysite Nanotubes. AIP Conf. Proc. AMiTaNS’15″, 2015, vol. 1684, p. 030004-1-030004-9.
8. Filippov Anatoly, Khanukaeva Daria, Afonin Denis, Skorikova Galina, Ivanov Evgeny, Vinokurov Vladimir and Lvov Yuri. Diffusive Permeability of Hybrid Cation-Exchange Membranes MF-4SC/Halloysite Nanotubes. Proc. of IEEE, 15th International Conference on Nanotechnology (IEEE-NANO) (Rome, Italy, 27-30 July 2015), 2015 IEEE, p. 208-211.
9. Khanukaeva D.Yu., Filippov A.N. Statistical Processing of Ultrafiltration Membrane Pore Size Distribution Determined by Atomic Force Microscopy. Petroleum Chemistry, 2015, vol. 55, no. 10, p. 909-917.
10. Gwyddion, http://gwyddion.net/