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Name
Authors
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2019/1
Problems and models of multi-criteria risk assessment and efficiency of development of methane-coal depositsPart II.
Technical sciences

Authors: Yury P. STEPIN (born 1946) graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1969, specializing in “Industrial Electronics” in 1975 he completed his postgraduate course. He is Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Automated Control Systems of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University). He is author of 146 scientific and methodical papers, 118 scientific-papers, 23 teaching aids, 3 books and 2 patents. He has prepared 5 candidates of sciences. E-mail: stepin.y@gubkin.ru

Abstract: The article is devoted to solving problems of multi-criteria assessment of options for development projects of methane-coal deposits under conditions of uncertainty and risk. Risks are considered in a narrow and broad sense. It is shown that the solution of the problem, in the case of risk assessment in a broad sense, is reduced to solving a game with nature, in which: the determination of the states of nature is evaluated by many criteria; the effectiveness (loss) of development options is assessed using the criteria of efficiency and risks adopted in the theory of games with nature, including the interpretation of risk as a standard deviation; the choice of the best Bayesian strategy (option) of development for a specific criterion is calculated both under partial and full uncertainty conditions; multi-criteria evaluation and selection of the best development option is carried out on the basis of multi-criteria ranking and selection according to the Board rule

Index UDK: 681.5: 519.86

Keywords: multi-criteria evaluation, risk, Bayesian strategy, game with nature, convolution of criteria, partial uncertainty, total uncertainty, Bord rule, Pareto comparison, risk as standard deviation

Bibliography:
1. Vishniykov J.D., Radaev N.N. Obschaiy teoriy riskov. M.: Akademiy, 2008, 368 р.
2. GOST R MEK 61511. Bezopasnost funktcionirovaniy. Sistemy bezopasnosti dliy promyshlennyh processov. М.: Stavdartinform, 2012.
3. GOST R MEK 61508. Upravlenie nadejnostiy. Analz riska tehnicheskih system. M.: Stavdartinform, 2008.
4. Andreev A.F., Zubareva V.D., Sarkisov A.S. Otcenka riskov neftegazovyh proektov. М.: Neft i gaz, 2002, 212 р.
5. Stepin Yu.P. Vibor strategiy obslujivaniy tehnologicheskogo oborudovania na obyektah nftegazovoy otrasli v usloviah neopredelennosti i riska. М.: Trudi RGU nefti i gaza (NIU) imeni I.М. Gubkina, 2016, no. 1 (282), р. 106-121.
6. Stepin Yu.P., Trakhtengerts E.A. Komp’yuternaya podderzhka upravleniya neftegazovymi tekhnologicheskimi protsessami i proizvodstvami. Metody i algoritmy formirovaniya upravlencheskikh resheniy. Kniga 1. Vektor TiS, 2007, 384 p. Kniga 2. М.: MAKS PressVektor TiS, 2008, 528 p.
7. Stepin Yu.P. Komp’yuternaya podderzhka formirovaniy mnogokriterialnogo ranjirovania i optimzacii upravlenchskih resheniy v neftegazovoy otrasli: Uchebnoe posobie. M.: ООО “Izdatelskiy dom Nedra”, 2016, 421 p.
8. Ventcel E.S. Issledovanie operatciy. М.: Sov. Radio, 1972, 552 p.
9. Nevejin V.P. Teoriy igr. Primery i zadachi. M.: FORUM, 2012, 128 р.
10. Matematicheskie metodi i modeli issledovania operaciy. Pod red. V.А. Каlemaeva. М.: UNITI, 2008, 592 p.

2018/4
Problems and models of multi-criteria risk assessment and efficiency of development of methane-coal deposits
Technical sciences

Authors: Yury P. STEPIN graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1969, specializing in “Industrial Electronics” in 1975 he completed his postgraduate course. He is Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Automated Control Systems of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University). He is author of 146 scientific and methodical papers, 118 scientific-papers, 23 teaching aids, 3 books and 2 patents. He has prepared 6 candidates of sciences. E-mail: stepin.y@gubkin.ru

Abstract: The article is devoted to multi-criteria assessment of the possibility of developing and evaluating and selecting options for projects of developing methane-coal deposits under conditions of uncertainty and risk. Risks are considered in a narrow and broad sense. It is shown that the solution of the problem of risk assessment in the narrow sense is reduced to multi-criteria: 1) assessment of the subjective probability, which determines the possibility of the development; 2) comparison and selection of criteria for assessing the prospect level of a field; 3) assessing the level of availability (quality) of a methane-coal deposit based on a probabilistic model and a model built on the basis of a Analytic Hierarchy Method that takes into account uncertainties and risks of operating deposit facilities through the relevant necessary performance indicators; 4) comparison and selection of the best field development option based on the Analytic Hierarchy Method

Index UDK: 681.5: 519.86

Keywords: multi-criteria evaluation, risk, convolution of criteria, Analytic Hierarchy Method, subjective probability, compromise scheme, risk in narrow sense, risk in broad sense

Bibliography:
1. Storonskiy N.M. Sovremennoe sostoyanie osvoeniy resursov metana uglnyh plastov Rossii. ОАО “Gazprom promgaz”. http://oilgasjournal.ru/vol_10/storonsky.pdf
2. Vishniykov J.D., Radaev N.N. Obschaiy teoriy riskov. M.: Akademiy, 2008, 368 p.
3. GOST R MEK 61511. Bezopasnost funktcionirovaniy. Sistemy bezopasnosti dliy promyshlennyh processov. M.: Stavdartinform, 2012.
4. GOST R MEK 61508. Upravlenie nadejnostiy. Analz riska tehnicheskih system. M.: Standartinform, 2008.
5. Andreev A.F., Zubareva V.D., Kurpitko, Sarkisov A.S. Otcenka riskov neftegazovyh proektov. М.: Neft’ i gaz, 2002, 212 p.
6. Marchenko Е.А. Planirovanie riskov pri provedenii geologo-pazvedochnyh rabot. М.: Neftianoe hoziastvo, no. 2, 2010, p. 14-17.
7. Маderа А.G. Riski i shasiy: ntopredelennost, prognozirovanie i оchenki. М.: KRASAND, 2014, 448 р.
8. Stepin Yu.P., Trakhtengerts E.A. Komp’yuternaya podderzhka upravleniya neftegazovymi tekhnologicheskimi protsessami i proizvodstvami. Metody i algoritmy formirovaniya upravlencheskikh resheniy. Kniga 1. “Vektor TiS”, 2007, 384 p. Kniga 2. “MAKS PressVektor TiS”, 2008, 528 p.
9. Stepin Yu.P. Komp’yuternaya podderzhka formirovaniy mnogokriterialnogo ranjirovania I optimzacii upravlenchskih resheniy v neftegazovoy otrasli. Uchebnoe posobie. М.: ООО “Izdatelskiy dom Nedra”, 2016, 421 p.
10. Desiatkin A.S, Strelchenko V.V. Viyavlenie i ocenka ugolnih plastov dlia dobichi metana po dannim geologogeofizicheskih i petrofizcheskih issledovaniy skvjin. Nauka i tehnika v gazovoy promihlennosti. М.: ООО “Gazprom ekspo”, 2009, no. 3 (39), p. 31-42.
11. Desiatkin A.S, Strelchenko V.V. Ocenka i prognoz osnovnih geologo-promislovih harakteristik ugolnih plastov dlia dobichi metana. Gazovaia promishlennost. М.: ООО “Gazoil press”, 2010, no. 7, p. 18-21.
12. Stepin Yu.P. Metod gruppovogo analiza ierarhiy dliy vibora variantov razrabotki mectorojdeniy nefti i gaza. Trudy Rossiyskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta nefti i gaza imeni I.М. Gubkina, 2017, no. 1 (286), p. 102-120.

2017/2
Mathematical model of computer simulator for trunk oil pipeline dispatchers
Technical sciences

Authors: Ayrat R. KHALIULLIN is assistant lecturer of the Department of Design and Operation of Gas and Oil Pipeline Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University). He is author of 10 academic papers. The area of his professional interests includes software for gas and oil computer decision support systems, computer simulators, distributed software. Е-mail: khaliullin.a@gubkin.ru
Yuri P. STEPIN is Doctor of Engineering, Academician of Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, international engineering high school teacher, Professor of the Department of Automated Control Systems of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University). He is author of more than 120 academic papers. His professional interests are Markov processes, multiobjective optimization, fuzzy logic, game theory, computer decision support systems, risk-management models, automated control systems design. Е-mail: stepin.y@gubkin.ru
Sergey A. SARDANASHVILI is Doctor of Engineering, associate professor, Head of Department of Design and Operation of Gas and Oil Pipeline Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University). He is author of more than 50 academic papers. His professional interests include gas and oil computer decision support systems, mathematical and methodical support for programming and computing suites and simulator complexes. Е-mail: sardanashvili.s@gubkin.ru

Abstract: The problem of mathematical modeling of computer simulator as a multicomponent realization of VPTE concept with components installed on remote computers in a network is discussed. The simulator complex is represented as a set of cooperative Markov processes with discrete states and continuous time. A random processes interaction scheme is formed, the states of processes are detailed; differential equations systems, initial conditions, normalization conditions and relations between equation solutions are made up. In addition, the article describes computer simulator operating modes, for each mode it determines evaluation of the complex functioning reliability index i.e. the availability factor. In collaboration with UML-diagrams, the mathematical functioning model of the computer simulator provides a possibility to describe its working process, to evaluate the parameters of the underlying Markov processes and to estimate the availability factor value.

Index UDK: 004.415.2; 51-74

Keywords: virtual professional training environment, computer simulator, mathematical model, Markov process, availability factor

Bibliography:
1. Fowler M. UML Distilled A Brief Guide to the Standard Object Modeling Language, 3rd Edition. Addison-Wesley Professional, 2003, 208 p.
2. Papilina T.M., Leonov D.G., Stepin Ju.P. Modelirovanie i ocenka jeffektivnosti funkcionirovanija sistemy oblachnyh vychislenij v ASDU. Avtomatizacija, telemehanizacija i svjaz’ v neftjanoj promyshlennosti, 2016, no. 7, p. 29-33 (in Russian).
3. Handzhjan A.O. Povyshenie nadezhnosti programmnogo obespechenija informacionno-izme-ritel’nyh i upravljajushhih sistem bezopasnosti jadernyh radiacionno-opasnyh ob’ektov. Dissertacija na soiskanie uchenoj stepeni kandidata tehnicheskih nauk, Moskva, 2006 (in Russian).
4. Khaliullin A.R., Shvechkov V.A., Leonov D.G. Organizacija vzaimodejstvija programmnyh komponentov mnogopol’zovatel’skih geterogennyh raspredelennyh kompleksov modelirovanija dina-micheskih processov truboprovodnyh sistem. Trudy XIV Vserossijskogo nauchnogo seminara „Matematicheskie modeli i metody analiza i optimal’nogo sinteza razvivajushhihsja truboprovodnyh i gid-ravlicheskih sistem”. Belokuriha, Altajskij kraj, 8-13 sentjabrja 2014 g. Irkutsk: ISJeM SO RAN, 2014, p. 410 (in Russian).
5. Khaliullin A.R. Arhitekturnye reshenija i opytnaja realizacija informacionnogo obmena komponentov geterogennyh raspredelennyh kompleksov modelirovanija dinamicheskih processov truboprovodnyh system. Avtomatizacija, telemehanizacija i svjaz’ v neftjanoj promyshlennosti, 2016, no. 8, p. 17-24 (in Russian).
6. Khaliullin A.R., Shvechkov V.A., Sardanashvili S.A. Arhitekturnye reshenija realizacii upravlenija komponentami raspredelennyh kompleksov podderzhki prinjatija dispetcherskih reshenij. Trudy Rossijskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta nefti i gaza imeni I.M. Gubkina, 2015, no. 4 (281), p. 114-128 (in Russian).
7. Ventcel’ E.S. Issledovanie operacij. M.: Sov. radio, 1972, 552 p (in Russian).
8. Stepin Y.P., Trahtengerc Je.A. Komp’juternaja podderzhka upravlenija neftegazovymi tehnologicheskimi processami i proizvodstvami. Kniga 1. M.: Vektor TiS, 2007, 384 s. Kniga 2. M.: MAKS Press, 2008, 528 p (in Russian).
9. GOST 27.002-89. Nadezhnost’ v tehnike. Osnovnye ponjatija. Terminy i opredelenija. M., 1990 (in Russian).

2017/1
Аnalitic hierarchy process for group analysis to select options of oil and gas fields development
Technical sciences

Authors: Yury P. STEPIN was born in 1946, graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1969, specializing in „Industrial Electronics”. He is Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Automated Control Systems of Gubkin Russian State University (National Research University) of Oil and Gas. He is author of 135 publications including 108 scientific-papers, 23 teaching aids, 2 books and 2 patents. He has prepared 5 candidates of sciences.
E-mail: stepin.y@gubkin.ru

Abstract: The article is devoted to multicriteria evaluation and ranking of alternatives agreed by several experts with the use of hierarchy analysis method, as applied to the selection of oil and gas field development options. It is shown that the solution of the problem in this case amounts to: the application of the MAI for ranking experts and development options for each expert and based on the median approach determining the best and consistent ranking of the development options.

Index UDK: 681.5: 519.86

Keywords: ranking, multicriteria evaluation, analytic hierarchy process, group selection, criteria for evaluation, types of evaluation criteria, Kemeny median, consistent ranking

Bibliography:
1. Saati T. Priniytie resheniy. Metod analiza ierarshiy. М.: Radio i sviyz, 1993, 278 р.
2. Petrovskiy A.B. Teoriy priniytiy resheniy. М.: Akademiy, 2009, 400 р.
3. Stepin Y.P. Komputernaiy podderjka formirovaniy, mnogokriterialnogo ranjirovaniy i optimizacii upravlencheskish resheniy v naftegazovoy otrasli. М.: Izdatelskiy dom Nedra, 2016, 421 р.
4. Filinov N.B. Razpabotka i priniytie upravlencheskish resheniy. М.: Infra, 2009, 308 р.
5. Mulen E. Kooperativnoe priniytie resheniy. Aksiomi i modely. М.: Mir, 1991, 464 р.
6. Evlanov L.G., Kytuzov V.A. Ekspertnie ocenki v upravlenii. М.: Ekonomika, 1978, 133 р.

2016/1
Choice of strategies of oil and gas equipment under of uncertainty and risk
Technical sciences

Authors: Yury P. STEPIN was born in 1946, graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1969, specializing in „Industrial Electronics”. He is Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Automated Control Systems of Gubkin Russian State University (National Research University) of Oil and Gas. He is author of 130 publications including 103 scientific-papers, 23 teaching aids, 2 books and 2 patents. He has prepared 5 candidates of sciences.
E-mail: stepin.y@gubkin.ru

Abstract: The article is devoted to solving problems of multicriteria evaluation and agreed selection (Customer - Contractor) of the optimal variant of maintenance and repairs of oil and gas production facilities in the conditions of uncertainty and risks of their operation, and market interaction of the Customer and the Contractor. It is shown that the solution of the problem in this case is reduced to a multicriteria evaluation of the technical condition of the objects of maintenance and maintenance options that take into account the uncertainty and risks of operating facilities through the appropriate necessary indicators (criteria); identification of the best Bayes maintenance strategies for the Customer and the Contractor under the conditions of partial and in complete uncertainty using the theory of games with nature selection criteria; choice of coherent maintenance strategy optimal for both Customer and Contractor using the Pareto method.

Index UDK: УДК 681.5: 519.86

Keywords: multi-criteria assessment of risk, Bayes maintenance strategy, security, game and nature, convolution of criteria, harmonization solutions, Pareto method for matching solutions, partial uncertainty, complete uncertainty

Bibliography:
1. Stepin Yu.P. Metody i modeli avtomatizacii i upravleniy obslujivaniem neftegazoviyh tehnologicheskih processov i proizvodstv (na primere promyslovyh geofizicheskih i remontnyh rabot v dobyche I transporte nefti I gaza). Dokt. dissert. М.: GANG im. I.М. Gubkina, 1998, 359 р.
2. Farapontov A.V., Gotarenko A.F. Risk orientirovannye podhody k obespecheniu ekspluatacionnoy nadejnosti sosudov, rabotauschih pod davleniem. M.: NTJ Bezopasnost truda v promyhlennosti, 2010, no. 11.
3. STO GAZPROM 2-2.3-385-2009 (Porijdok provedeniy tehnicheskogo obslujivaniy i remonta truprovodnoy armatury), 2009.
4. Katulev A.N., Severtcev N.A. Issledovanie operatciy. Principy priniyatiy reheniy i obespechenie bezopasnosti. M.: Fiz-mat literature, 2000, 318 p.
5. Stepin Yu.P., Trakhtengerts E.A. Komp’yuternaya podderzhka upravleniya neftegazovymi tekhnologicheskimi protsessami i proizvodstvami. Metody i algoritmy formirovaniya upravlencheskikh resheniy. Kniga 1. Vektor TiS, 2007, 384 p. Kniga 2. MAKS Press, 2008, 528 p.
6. Vetcel E.S. Issledovanie operatciy.
М.: Sov. Radio, 1972, 552 p.
7. Kafarov V.V., Mashalkin V.P., Grun G., Noyman V. Obespechenie i metody optimizccii nadejnosti himicheskih i neftehimicheskih proizvodstv. M.: Himiy, 1987, 342 p.
8. GOST R MEK 61511. Bezopasnost funktcionirovaniy. Sistemy bezopasnosti dliy promyshlennyh processov. M.: Stavdartinform, 2012.
9. GOST R MEK 61508 Upravlenie nadejnostiy. Analz riska tehnicheskih system. – M.: Stavdartinform, 2008 g.
10. Burkov V.N., Gratcianskiy E.V., Dzubko S.I., Schepkin A.V. Modeli i mehanizmy upravleniy bezpasnotiu. V.: SINTEG, 2001, 160 p.
11. Standart DNV-RP-F116. Recommended Practice. Integrity Management of Submarine Pipeline Systems, October, 2009.
12. Makdonald D. Promyshlennaiy bezopasnost, octenivanie riska i sistemy avariiynogo ostanova.
М.: ООО “Gruppa IDT”, 2007.
13.
http://www.vm.dupland.com/sites/default/files.pdf
14. Vishniykov J.D., Radaev N.N. Obschaiy teoriy riskov. M.: Akademiy, 2008, 368 p.
15. Nejin V.P. Teoriy igr. Primery i zadachi. M.: FORUM, 2012, 128 p.
16. Suharev M.G., Lapiga A.G., Kalinina E.V. Statiaticyeskiy analiz avariynosti gazoraspredelitelnih system. Territoriy neftegaz, 2010, no. 4.
17. Andreev A.F., Zubareva V.D., Sarkisov A.S. Otcenka riskov neftegazovyh proektov. –
М.: Neft i gaz, 2003, 212 p.

2013/4
Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Options for Development of Oil and Gas Deposits Using Method of Analytical Networks.
Drilling and development of hydrocarbon fields

Authors: Sergei M. DAMASKIN graduated from Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas with Master’s degree in 2010. He is currently a graduate student of the Department of Automated Control Systems of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He is author of more than five scientific publications. E-mail: damaskin@mail.ru
Yuri P. STEPIN was born in 1946, he graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1969. He is Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of of the Department of Automated Control Systems of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He specializes in the field of computer-aided management decision-making. He is author of 121 scientific publications. E-mail: stepin@qubkin.ru

Abstract: A new approach to the problem of multi-criteria evaluation of options for the development of oil and gas fields on the basis of analytical networks method is proposed. It is shown that basing on the recommendations of the Rules for formulating project documents for development of oil and gas deposits and using the analytical networks method the best alternative of oil and gas field development variant can be reasonably computed using rigorous mathematical methods.

Index UDK: 622.276

Keywords: oil, gas, selection criteria, optimized decision-making, analytical networks method

Bibliography:
1. RD 153-39-007-96. Reglament sostavlenija proektnyh tehnologicheskih dokumentov na razrabotku neftjanyh i gazoneftjanyh mestorozhdenij. Moscow, 1996, 112 p.
2. Saati T.L. Prinjatie reshenij. Metod analiza ierarhij. M., Radio i svjaz’, 1993, 320 p.
3. Saati T.L. Prinjatie reshenij pri zavisimostjah i obratnyh svjazjah. Analiticheskie seti. M.: URSS, 2011, 360 p.
4. Saaty T.L. Decision making with Dependence and Feedback. The Analityc Network Process. Pittsburgh: PWS Publications, 2000, 370 p.
5. Andrejchikova O.A. Prinjatie reshenij v uslovijah vzaimnoj zavisimosti kriteriev i al’ternativ slozhnyh tehnicheskih sistem//Informacionnye tehnologii, 2001, no. 11, p
р. 14–19.
6.
Rukovodstvo pol’zovatelja programmy SuperDecisions.
7. Materialy sajta http://www.superdecisions.com.

2012/3
Model of fuzzy multi-criteria optimization and risk assessment of project choices
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Yuriy P. STEPIN was born in 1946. In 1969, he graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry, specializing in “Industrial Electronics”, in 1975 he completed his postgraduate course. He is Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Automated Control Systems of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He is President of the Scientific Council of the Faculty Master training, member of the Academic Council of the Faculty of postgraduate education, member of the Dissertation Council of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He is author of 112 scientific papers, 21 teaching aids, 2 books and 2 patents. He has prepared four candidates of sciences. E-mail: stepin@gubkin.ru

Abstract: The problems of fuzzy mathematical programming with Boolean variables (problems of project choices), in which the criteria can roughly (vaguely) achieve the extreme, and resource constraints can be observe roughly (vaguely) are discussed. The paper identifies the problems of planning and organization in the oil and gas industry, which belong to this class of optimization problems. The principle of optimal solutions of the multicriteria problem formed on the basis of the Bellman-Zadeh is defined. Possible algorithms for finding the optimal solutions are indicated. It is shown that the violation of resource constraints and optimality criteria of membership in solving the optimization problem is a multicriteria assessment of resources overuse risk. The algorithm to minimize the risk is shown

Index UDK: 519.86

Keywords: fuzzy optimization; fuzzy mathematical programming; principle of the Bellman-Zadeh; multicriteria Optimization; risk; assessment of the risk; selection variants of projects; membership function

Bibliography:
1. Aliev R.A., Cerkovskij A.Je., Mamedova G.A. Upravlenie proizvodstvom pri nechetkoj ishodnoj informacii. – M.: Jenergoizdat, 1989/ – 264 p.
2. Je.A. Trahtengerc, Ju.P. Stepin, Komp'juternye metody podderzhki prinjatija upravlencheskih reshenij v neftegazovoj promyshlennosti. – M.: Sinteg, 2005. – 583 p.
3. Stepin Ju.P., Trahtengerc Je.A. Komp'juternaja podderzhka upravlenija neftegazovymi tehnologicheskimi processami i proizvodstvami. Kniga 1. Metody i algoritmy formirovanija upravlencheskih reshenij, 2007. – 382 p.
4. Stepin Ju.P., Trahtengerc Je.A. Komp'juternaja podderzhka upravlenija neftegazovymi tehnologicheskimi processami i proizvodstvami. Kniga 2. Metody podderzhki prinjatija upravlencheskih reshenij pri planirovanii i dinamike upravlenija, 2008. – 534 p.
5. Kudrjavcev E.M. Issledovanie operacij v zadachah, algoritmah i programmah. – M.: Radio i svjaz', 1984. – 183 p.