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Logit-regression models to predict the bankruptcy of companies
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Dmitry A. MURADOV was born in 1986, graduated from the Gubkin Russian State University of oil & gas with a bachelor’s degree in 2006 and with a master’s degree in 2008. Post-graduate student of “Financial Management” department of the Gubkin Russian State University of oil & gas. Author of 9 scientific publications in the field of financial management, forecasting and evaluating the status of the bankruptcy of companies. E-mail: fanta_2002@inbox.ru

Abstract: The article considers the main foreign and domestic logit-regression models predicting bankruptcy, provides their characteristics and a brief analysis of the approach predicting bankruptcy using the apparatus of logistic regression. The main strengths and weaknesses are highlighted, as well as the possibility of using logit-models for predicting bankruptcy in the Russian context.

Index UDK: 658(075.8)

Keywords: bankruptcy, bankruptcy prediction, financial analysis, economic and mathematical models, logistic regression, logit-model estimate of probability of bankruptcy, bankruptcy model, financial condition of companies, multiplicative discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic regression machine