Статьи

Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Economic background for development of russian shelf deposits
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Nicholay S. BARANOV graduated from the Finance Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation specializing in ‚Accounting and Audit’ in 2006. In 2012 he graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) program and received MBA degree in ‚International Oil and Gas Business’. In 2013 defended Candidate of Sciences thesis in economics at Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He is Head of the Department of Joint Projects with ‚Statoil’ at OAO ‚NK’ Rosneft”. He is author of 13 publications. E-mail: Baranov.nikolay@gmail.com

Abstract: The paper provides a rationale for prioritizing projects of offshore fields development from the perspective of accelerating economic growth in the country. The tendencies of the development of the oil and gas industry are considered, the effect of complex development of offshore projects is shown.

Index UDK: УДК 553.98

Keywords: offshore fields, economic growth, investment, localization of production, the Arctic

Bibliography:
1. Ader Terner. Zemlja — robotam//: Forbes, 2014, no. 06 (123), p. 23.
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3. Larina E., Ovchinskij V. Russkoe chudo XXI veka. www.zavtra.ru
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5. Nekipelov A., Ivanter V., Glaz’ev S. Politika perehoda k jeffektivnoj jekonomike. Jekonomist, 2014. 17.01.2014, no. 12, p. 14.
6. BP Statistical Review of World Energy: BP, 2013, p. 16.
7. www.rosneft.ru
8. Bojan Shoch. Ispolnitel’nyj direktor ExxonMobil Reks Tillerson uveren v prodolzhenii sotrudnichestva s Rossiej//http://www.oilandgaseurasia.com— 18.06.2014.
9. BP Statistical Review of World Energy: BP, 2011, p. 124.
10. http://www.gazprom.ru
11. Baranov N.S. Osvoenie shel’fovyh mestorozhdenija Rossii. Jekonomicheskoe stimu-lirovanie. Fiskal’noe regulirovanie. M.: Nedra, 2014, p. 151.
12. Baranov N.S. Normativno-pravovye bar’ery na puti osvoenija shel’fa//Problemy jekonomiki i upravlenija neftegazovym kompleksom, 2014, no. 5, p. 18.
13. Baranov N.S. Stimulirovanie jekonomicheskogo rosta za schet kompleksnoj realizacii proektov osvoenija shel’fovyh mestorozhdenij. Neft’, Gaz i Biznes, 2014, no. 6, p. 8.
14. Klejner G.B. Kljuchevye problemy sovremennogo menedzhmenta. Vestnik RJeU, 2012, no. 6, p. 50.

Strategic management of long-term plan of technological development of oil and gas companies.
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Alexander A. SINEL’NIKOV graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1966 and graduate school of the Institute of Control of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He is Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Industrial Management of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He specializes in the field of management and optimization. He is author of more than 80 scientific publications. E-mail: sinelnikov rgung@mail.ru

Abstract: The problem of implementing a long-term technology plan to provide for strategic needs of a vertically integrated oil and gas company is considered. A concept of managing the implementation of a long-term technology plan basing on integrated planning process and providing for the development of effective set of procedures to analyze strategic and innovative approaches to the implementation of long-term technology plan is proposed. It is shown that a company's stable competitiveness is achieved through linking closer strategic objectives and technological resources to implement long-term plans of technological development.

Index UDK: 65.050

Keywords: technological development, long term planning, integrated planning, process of innovation, technology management

Bibliography:
1. Andreev A.F., Sinel’nikov A.A. Innovacionnyj menedzhment na predprijatijah neftjanoj i gazovoj promyshlennosti: Monografija. M.: MAKS Press, 2008, 304 р.
2. Andreev A.F., Sinel’nikov A.A. Strategicheskij menedzhment na predprijatijah neftegazovogo kompleksa: Uchebnoe posobie. M.: MAKS Press, 2010, 208 
р.
3. Sinel’nikov A.A. Problemy realizacii strategicheskogo podhoda k upravleniju tehnologicheskim razvitiem neftegazovoj kompanii. Trudy RGU nefti i gaza imeni I.M. Gubkina, no. 3 (272), 2013, pp. 119–137.
4.
Sinel’nikov A.A. Ocenka i vybor NIOKR na predprijatijah neftegazovogo kompleksa. Problemy jekonomiki i upravlenija neftegazovym kompleksom, 2008, no. 8, pp. 39–43.
5.
Sinel’nikov A.A. Osnovy formirovanija innovacionnoj strategii na predprijatijah neftegazovogo kompleksa. Problemy jekonomiki i upravlenija neftegazovym kompleksom, 2008, no. 9, pp. 16–19.

Analyzing features of personnel professional activities affecting the safety of the production process at LLC «Gazprom mining Nadym».
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Igor S. MOROZOV was born in 1968, he graduated from Gubkin State Academy of Oil and Gas in 1992. He is Chief Engineer, First Deputy General Director of LLC “Gazprom mining Nadym”. He is author of more than 20 scientific publications. E-mail: trudyrgung@gubkin.ru
Igor M. KRIVETSKY was born in 1963, he graduated from the Tyumen Industrial Institute in 1985. He is Deputy Chief Engineer for occupational safety, industrial and fire safety at LLC “Gazprom mining Nadym”. He is author of one scientific publication.
E-mail: trudyrgung@gubkin.ru
Alla T. VOLOKHINA graduated from Gubkin State Academy of Oil and Gas in 1996. She is Candidate of Technical Sciences, assistant professor of the Department of industrial Safety and Environmental Protection at Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. She is author of more than 50 publications.
E-mail: alla_volohina@mail.ru
Elena V. GLEBOVA graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1972, specializing in “Technology of Basic Organic and Petrochemical Synthesis”, and received the degree of Candidate of Technical Sciences in 1978. She is Doctor of Technical Sciences, professor, Head of the Department of industrial Safety and Environmental Protection at Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. She is author of more than 120 scientific and educational works.
E-mail: trudyrgung@gubkin.ru

Abstract: We analyzed the production activities of personnel of LLC «Gazprom mining Nadym» to determine the regularities of the influence of various aspects on the safety of production processes. Using the method of expert assessment we identified the shift personnel professionally relevant qualities necessary to perform the required functions of production in the Far North. Based on the analysis of production activities a job description is made to prepare operators of gas treatment units.

Index UDK: 614.8.015

Keywords: профессионально важные качества, профессиограмма, метод экспертной оценки professional qualities, job description, method of expert evaluation

Bibliography:
1. Kotick M.A. Ispol’zovanie psihologicheskih faktorov v celjah povyshenija bezopasnosti. [Use of psychological factors in order to improve safety]. Biblioteka inzhenera po ohrane truda, 2007, no.1, pp. 35–42.
2.
Volokhina A.T., Ivanova M.V. Analiz avarijnosti i travmatizma na ob#ektah neftegazodobychi. [Analysis of accidents and injuries on oil and gas production facilities.] Sbornik trudov zaochnoj mezhdunarodnoj nauchno-prakticheskoj konferencii “Sistema upravlenija jekologicheskoj bezopasnost’ju”. [Proceedings of the correspondence of the international scientific -practical conference “The system of environmental safety management”. Yekaterinburg Ural State Technical University — UPI], 2007, pp. 294–297.
3.
Paslyonov A.P., Popovich T.V. Osnovnye kriterii psihologicheskogo otbora rabotnikov vahtovym metodom v uslovijah Krajnego Severa i instrumentarij ih ocenki. [The main criteria of psychological selection of workers in shifts in the Far North and evaluation tools.]. Vestnik NOU “ONUTC OAO “Gazprom”. [Bulletin of LEU “ONUTTS OAO “Gazprom”], 2011, no. 2(10), pp. 2–5.
4.
Maklakov A.G. Professional’nyj psihologicheskij otbor personala. Teorija i praktika: Uchebnik dlja vuzov. [Professional psychological selection of personnel. Theory and Practice: A Textbook for high schools.] Spb.: Izd-vo “Piter”, 2008, 583 p.

Categories «subsurface area», «mountain and geological allotments»: ratio of concepts and improvement of legal regulation
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Vitaly D. MEL’GUNOV graduated from the Moscow State Law Academy (MSLA) in 1998. He is Candidate of Jurisprudence, associate professor of the Department of Natural Resource and Environmental Law at Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He is author of more than 25 scientific publications. E-mail: v.melgounov@mail.ru
Antonina N. KOSTAREVA graduated from the Russian Academy of Foreign Trade in 2011. She is graduate student of Russian Academy of Foreign Trade. E-mail: a.kostareva@noland.ru

Abstract: The article discusses the content and value of such concepts of subsoil legislation as an instrument certifying mining lease license for subsoil use, the subsurface area and geological allotment, mining allotment to make distinction between them. Based on the analysis of legal acts the authors conclude that, despite close relationship, the concepts of the subsurface area and mining claim have different legal regime, with differences being fully manifested in the procedure of changing the boundaries and borders of subsoil mining leases. Keywords: act certifying mining allotment; license for subsoil use, subsurface area; geological allotment; mining claim; changing borders of subsoil and specifying boundaries of mining leases.

Index UDK: 347.731

Keywords: act certifying mining allotment; license for subsoil use, subsurface area; geological allotment; mining claim; changing borders of subsoil and specifying boundaries of mining leases

Bibliography:
1. Zabbarov K.V. Porjadok izmenenija granic uchastkov nedr, predostavlennyh v polzovanie. Neft’, Gaz i Pravo, 2012, no. 6.
2. Ibragimov V.B. Nedropol’zovanie i pravo pol’zovanija nedrami (uchastkami nedr): sub’ekty, ob’ekty, soderzhanie. Neft’, Gaz i Pravo, 2012, no. 3, p. 28.
3. Perchik A.I. Kriticheskoe prochtenie Zakona “O nedrah”: ponjatija, instituty, terminologija. Neft’, Gaz i Pravo, 2007, no. 3.
4. Izjumov I.V., Karasev V.I., Kleandrov M.I., Saliev I.R. Gornoe pravo: uchebnik. M.: OOO “PravoTJeK”, 2010, pp. 233–241.
5.
Perchik A.I. Gornoe pravo: 3-e izd. M.: MAKS Press, 2008, pp.169—174.
6. Hramov D.G. Pravo pol’zovanija nedrami v Rossijskoj Federacii. M., 2004, p. 88.
7. Manin Ja.V. Administrativno-pravovoe regulirovanie pol’zovanija uchastkami nedr federal’nogo znachenija. Dissertacija na soiskanie uchenoj stepeni kandidata juridicheskih nauk. M., 2012.
8. Nikishin D.L. Pravovoj mehanizm predostavlenija nedr v pol’zovanie. Dissertacija na soiskanie uchenoj stepeni kandidata juridicheskih nauk. M., 2013.
9. Sviridova O.S. Pravo gosudarstvennoj sobstvennosti na nedra v Rossijskoj Federacii: ponjatie, soderzhanie i osobennosti. Dissertacija na soiskanie uchenoj stepeni kandidata juridicheskih nauk. M., 2012.

Formulation and implementation of quantitative assessment of human capital assets in oil and gas companies
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Natalia M. ZAZOVSKAYA graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1976 in Applied Mathematics. She holds a Master of Science of the University of North Texas (USA), specializing in social and labor relations. She is Candidate of Sociological Sciences in Economic Sociology. She has published over 30 papers in the field of human resource management. E-mail: nzazovskaya@gmail.com
Maria A. SREBRODOLSKAYA graduated from Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas as Bachelor of Engineering and Technology in 2011. She is studying for Master’s Degree at the Department of Geoinformation Systems. She is holder of the Scholarship of the President of the Russian Federation. Since 2009 she has been working on a research project in the field of human capital assets at the Educational Center for Advanced Training of Workers of Energy Sector. She is author of over 10 scientific publications in the field of human resource management. E-mail: mary_roza@bk.ru

Abstract: Companies have been displaying growing interest in formulating quantitative assessment of the efficiency of investment in human resources. HR specialists want to show how training and development affect the company’s performance. This allows, on the one hand, to assert the costs of training, and on the other hand, to show the importance of investment in the personnel for the company’s strategic production and business development. Managers are currently in need of a tool to analyze situations and make predictions on how investing in the personnel affects the company’s final performance. This article focuses on the formation and implementation of the quantitative indicators system to measure human capital assets as applied to the enterprises of the Russian oil and gas industry.

Index UDK: 331.1

Keywords: human capital assets, system of quantitative indicators, investment in human resource base, return on investment, balanced scorecard, financial performance, social performance indicators, comparison of indicators, effective personnel management

Bibliography:
1. Kapeljushnikov R.I. Jekonomicheskij podhod Gjeri Bekkera k chelovecheskomu povede-niju// SShA: jekonomika, politika, ideologija, 1993, no. 11, p. 107-119.
2.
Korchagin Ju.A. Shirokoe ponjatie chelovecheskogo kapitala//Centr issledovanija regional’noj jekonomiki. Voronezh: 2009. URL: http://www.lerc.ru/?part=articles&art=3/22 (data obrashhe- nija: 10.03.2013).
3. Metodicheskie materialy po razrabotke programm innovacionnogo razvitija akcionernyh obshhestv s gosudarstvennym uchastiem, gosudarstvennyh korporacij i federal’nyh gosudarstvennyh unitarnyh predprijatij/Minjekonomrazvitija Rossii. Moskva. URL:http://www.economy.gov.ru/minec/ activity/sections/innovations/innovative/doc20110201_02 (data obrashhenija: 01.02.2011).
4. Radaev V.V. Ponjatie kapitala, formy kapitalov i ih konvertacija/Jekonomicheskaja sociolo-gija: jelektronnyj zhurnal. T. 3, no. 4, 2002, p. 20-32. URL: http://ecsoc.hse.ru/issues/2002-3-4/ index.html (data obrashhenija: 16.03.2013).
5. Fitc-еnc Jak. Rentabel’nost’ investicij v personal. Izmerenie jekonomicheskoj cennosti perso- nala. M.: Vershina, 2006, p. 191-195.
6.
DiFrancesco J. Managing human capital as a real business asset. IHRIM Journal, 2002. Vol. VI, no. 2, p. 7-16.
7.
Kaplan R., Norton D. The Balanced Scorecard: Translating Strategy Into Action. Harvard Business School Press, 1996, p. 126-146.
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Wang G., Dobbs R. Institutional economics and human resource development. Advances in Developing Human Resources, 2008, оctober, p. 771-773.
9.
2010 Metric Library. Saratoga-Price Waterhouse Coopers Workshop, Washington DC, 2012.

Implementing strategic approach to management of oil and gas company technological development
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Alexander A. SINELNIKOV graduated from Gubkin Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry in 1966 and completed a course of post-graduate studies at the Institute of Management (IMP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He is Candidate of Technical Sciences, associate professor of the Department of Production Management of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He is a specialist in management and optimization and author and co-author of over 80 scientific publications. E-mail: sinelnikov_rgung@mail.ru

Abstract: The relevance and the main directions of the strategic approach to the challenges of management of a company technological development are shown. The conceptual provisions of technological strategy are considered. Recommendations on the development of a strategic portfolio of technologies are formulated. A model of strategic technological management, covering the cycle of preparation and implementation of strategic, process-oriented solutions is proposed.

Index UDK: 005.21

Keywords: strategy, technological management, innovation, integration

Bibliography:
1. Ansoff I. Strategicheskoe upravlenie. M.: Jekonomika, 1989, 519 р.
2. Andreev A.F., Sinel’nikov A.A. Strategicheskij menedzhment na predprijatijah neftegazovogo kompleksa: Uchebnoe posobie. M.: MAKS Press, 2010, 208 р.
3. Andreev A.F., Sinel’nikov А.А. Innovacionnyj menedzhment na predprijatijah neftjanoj i gazovoj promyshlennosti. M.: MAKS Press, 2008, 304 р.
4. Sinel’nikov A.A. Strategicheskij tehnologicheskij kontrol’ na predprijatijah neftegazovoj promyshlennosti. Neft’, Gaz i Biznes, 2003, no. 1, p. 57-60.
5.
Sinel’nikov A.A. Osnovy analiza inzhiniringovyh reshenij v zadachah strategicheskogo planirovanija. Neft’, Gaz i Biznes, 2003, no. 4, p. 64-74

«Mentor – young professional» relations in manufacturing organizations
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Irina Yu. EREMINA graduated from Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas in 1997. She is Professor of the Department of Labour and Human Resources Management at Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, author of 130 scientific works in the field of management, labor and human resources management and expanded reproduction of human resources. E-mail: irinargung@mail.ru
Fatima A. JIOEVA graduated from Rostov State University of Tourism and Service in 2011. She is a postgraduate student of the Department of Labour and Human Resources Management of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. She is author of two scientific papers in the field of personnel training. E-mail: trudyrgung@gubkin.ru

Abstract: The work is devoted to the study of the specific role and relationship of the young specialist with the mentor in manufacturing organizations and the definition of the mentor’s functions in the «mentor – young professional» system. The work is focused on the need to identify the particular nature of the relationship in the «mentor – young professional» system in a manufacturing organization. In the current situation when the systems of stable job training is destroyed or under restructuring, new professions emerge, certain professions loose or acquire popularity, mentorship is one of the factors of productive resources and professional development.

Index UDK: 331.1

Keywords: «mentor – young professional», mentorship, teacher and student, mentor-activist, mentor-thinker, mentor-teacher, mentor-theorist, mentor-pragmatist, adaptation of staff, young professional

Bibliography:
1. Aref’ev S.L. Izuchenie processa professional’noj adaptacii psihologa v promyshlennosti/: Avtoref. Dis. kand. psihol. nauk. M.: MGU, 2008, 25 р.
2. Gareth L. Menedzher-nastavnik: Per. s angl. Dnepropetrovsk: Balans-Klub, 2010, 220 p.
3. Georgieva I.A. Social’no-psihologicheskie faktory adaptacii lichnosti v kollektive: Avtoref. Dis. kand. psihol. nauk. M.: MGU, 2006, 24 р.
4. Gerchikova I.N. Menedzhment: Moscow, 2007, 499 р.
5. Davydova T.Ju., Shelobaev S.I., Arsen’ev Ju.N. Upravlenie personalom: мodeli upravlenija. Moscow, 2010, 384 р.
6. Dzhej Ros, Templar Richard. Encyclopedia of the manager. Algorithms of effective work: the 3rd prod. M: Alpina Business Buks, 2006, 412 р.
7. Durakova I.B. Upravlenie personalom. Moscow, 2008, 470 р.
8. Djatlov V.A., Kibanov A.Ja., Pihalo V.T. Upravlenie personalom. Moscow, 2008, 259 р.
9. Zhuravlev P.V., Kartashov S.A. Tehnologija upravlenija personalom. Nastol’naja kniga menedzhera. Мoscow, 2010, 370 р.
10. Latukha M.O. Upravlenie adaptaciej personala kak faktor konkurentosposobnosti organizacii: Dissertacija na soiskanie uchenoj stepeni kandidata jekonomicheskih nauk. Cankt-Peterburgskij Gosudarstvennyj Universitet. S-Petersburg, 2003, 155 р.
11. Marenkov H.L., Kosarenko N.N. Upravlenie personalom organizacii. Мoscow, 2008, 384 р.
12. Menedzhment. Praktikum: I.T. Ivanova. Moscow, 2006, 191 р.
13. Shekshnja S.V. Upravlenie personalom sovremennoj organizacii. Moscow, 2010, 300 р.
14. Shkatulla V.I. Nastol’naja kniga menedzhera po kadram. Moscow, 2008, 350 р.
15. Adaptacija personala v torgovyh kompanijah. N. Abakumova, E. Zhuravleva. www.hrm.ru.

Evaluation of synergistic effects of investment projects in oil and gas company
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Avedik S. SARKISOV was born in 1967, he graduated from the S. Ordzhonikidze Moscow Aviation Institute in 1990 specializing in “Aircraft Equipment System”. He is Professor of the Department of Financial Management Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He has published over 87 scientific papers, including 8 monographs, 8 textbooks. . E-mail: trudyrgung@gubkin.ru
Vladislav V. GUZ is a postgraduate student of the Department of Financial Management Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. E-mail: trudyrgung@gubkin.ru

Abstract: The paper proposes an approach to describing and assessing the value of synergy effects of investment projects within the same oil and gas company. The approach is based on the idea of the investment project as the core of the production and supply-and-marketing shell, with functions of individual projects incorporates within it. The main types of interaction occurring between investment projects when projects shells fuse are classified. The presented example shows that the application of the proposed approach increases the efficiency of the portfolio of investment projects.

Index UDK: 336.717

Keywords: synergy, resources, Wilson's model, investment policy, oil and gas company

Bibliography:
1. Sarkisov A.S. Tehnologija strategicheskogo upravlenija. Pechatnyj Dvor, 2001, 312 р.
2. Sarkisov A.S., Solov’ev A.S., Guz’ V.V. Formirovanie strategii stroitel’stva jelektrostancij sobstvennyh nuzhd na predprijatijah neftegazovogo kompleksa. Trudy RGU nefti i gaza im.I.M. Gubkina, 2011, no. 3 (264), рр. 146–160.
3.
Sarkisov A.S., Solov’ev A.S., Guz’ V.V. Ocenka jeffektivnosti ispol’zovanija jelektrostancij sobstvennyh nuzhd na predprijatijah neftegazovogo kompleksa. Neft’, gaz i biznes, 2011, no. 9. pp. 55–59.
4.
Ryzhikov Ju.I. Teorija ocheredej i upravlenie zapasami. SPb: Piter, 2001, 384 p.

Technology transfer as a way to increase productive capacity of industrial enterprise
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Evgeny V. ASTAFIEV graduated from UGNTU in 2005, he is lecturer of the Ufa State Oil Technical University (UGNTU). E-mail: astafiev82@mail.ru

Abstract: The article presents analysis of the oil and gas industry in Russia, a review of the prospects of the industry, and proposes the process of formulation of general corporate and innovation strategies of the company, depending on the changes in the external and internal conditions of their operation, in coordination and cooperation with the scientific community of high school.

Index UDK: 330.322

Keywords: innovation, oil and gas companies, innovation management, research and development, innovation strategies

Bibliography:
1. Korshak A.A., Shammazov A.M. Osnovy neftegazovogo dela [Basics of Petroleum Engineering]. — Ufa, Dizaynpoligrafservis Publ., 2002. — 544 p.
2. Vagin S.G. Modern innovation dominant technological development [Sovremennye dominanty innovatzionno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya]. Proceedings of the Institute of Management Systems Samara State Economic University [Izvestiya instituta sistem upravleniya Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta], Samara, 2010. — No.1. — РР. 155.
3. Okrepilov V.V. «Skolkovo»: opportunities, great prospects [«Skolkovo»: shirokie vozmozhnosti, bol’shye perspektivy] Journal of Innovation «Innovation» [Zhurnal ob innovatziyakh «Innovatzii»]. — No. 6. — 2011. — РР. 3–8.

Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of oil and gas markets prices in the context of investment analysis
Economics and management in fuel and energy complex industries

Authors: Sergey U. ZHOLKOV was born in 1952. He graduated from the M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University specializing in “Higher geometry and topology” in 1974. He is Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor, Senior Researcher, Professor of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Modeling at Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas. He is Member of the Moscow Mathematical Society, author of over 50 publications in the Russian and English languages. He was awarded a diploma and a commendation of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation. E-mail: sergei_jolkov@mail.ru
Arseny A. KORSHUNOV graduated from Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas in 2010. He is Ph.D. student at the Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Modeling. He has five scientific publications. E-mail: aakorshunov@tnk-bp.com

Abstract: The problem of constructing an adequate model of the dynamics of prices of oil and gas markets in the context of investment analysis is solved. Stochastic costs of an investment project due to contingences or uncertainty are studied using the stochastic theory of portfolio management – a method proposed in a series of publications of American economists in 1973–79 and 1998–2000, now considered «classic». To define «adequacy», both quantitative and qualitative, features of adequacy and acceptable range of values were found. An adequate adaptive model was constructed. A steady deviation from the real model of price changes of 6,26–10,77% for prices and 1,535–3% for the logarithmic prices respectively is achieved.

Index UDK: 519.86

Keywords: dynamics of prices of oil and gas markets, adequate mathematical model, investment analysis, stochastic financial analysis, adequate adaptive model

Bibliography:
1. Zubareva V.D., Sarkisov A.S., Andreev A.F. Investicionnye neftegazovye proekty: jeffektivnost' i riski. – М.: Nedra, 2010.
2. Limitovskij M.A. Investicionnye proekty i real'nye opciony na razvivajuwihsja rynkah. – М.: Delo, 2004.
3. Smoljak S.A. Ocenka jeffektivnosti investicionnyh proektov v uslovijah riska i neopredelennosti. – М.: Nauka, 2002.
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